Saturday, 23 June 2012

Old vs. Young

quote [ Sometime around 2004... older voters began moving right, while younger voters shifted left. This year, polls suggest that Mitt Romney will win a landslide among the over-65 crowd and that President Obama will do likewise among those under 40. ]

I like it.

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IN a partisan country locked in a polarizing campaign, there is no shortage of much discussed divisions: religious and secular, the 99 percent and the 1 percent, red America and blue America.

But you can make a strong case that one dividing line has actually received too little attention. It’s the line between young and old.

Draw it at the age of 65, 50 or 40. Wherever the line is, the people on either side of it end up looking very different, both economically and politically. The generation gap may not be a pop culture staple, as it was in the 1960s, but it is probably wider than it has been at any time since then.

Throughout the 1980s and ’90s, younger and older adults voted in largely similar ways, with a majority of each supporting the winner in every presidential election. Sometime around 2004, though, older voters began moving right, while younger voters shifted left. This year, polls suggest that Mitt Romney will win a landslide among the over-65 crowd and that President Obama will do likewise among those under 40.

Beyond political parties, the two have different views on many of the biggest questions before the country. The young not only favor gay marriage and school funding more strongly; they are also notably less religious, more positive toward immigrants, less hostile to Social Security cuts and military cuts and more optimistic about the country’s future. They are both more open to change and more confident that life in the United States will remain good.

Their optimism is especially striking in the context of their economic troubles. Older Americans have obviously suffered in recent years, with many now fearing a significantly diminished retirement. But the economic slump of the last decade — a mediocre expansion, followed by a terrible downturn — has still taken a much higher toll on the young. Less established in their working lives, they have struggled to get hired and to hold on to jobs.

The wealth gap between households headed by someone over 65 and those headed by someone under 35 is wider than at any point since the Federal Reserve Board began keeping consistent data in 1989. The gap in homeownership is the largest since Census Bureau data began in 1982. The income gap is also at a recorded high; median inflation-adjusted income for households headed by people between 25 and 34 has dropped 11 percent in the last decade while remaining essentially unchanged for the 55-to-64 age group.

If there is a theme unifying these economic and political trends, in fact, it is that the young are generally losing out to the old. On a different subject, Warren E. Buffett, 81, has joked that there really is a class war in this country — and that his class is winning it. He could say the same about a generational war.

Younger adults are faring worse in the private sector and, in large part because they have less political power, have a less generous safety net beneath them. Older Americans vote at higher rates and are better organized. There is no American Association of Non-Retired Persons. “Pell grants,” notes the political scientist Kay Lehman Schlozman, “have never been called the third rail of American politics.”

Over all, more than 50 percent of federal benefits flow to the 13 percent of the population over 65. Some of these benefits come from Social Security, which many people pay for over the course of their working lives. But a large chunk comes through Medicare, and contrary to widespread perception, most Americans do not come close to paying for their own Medicare benefits through payroll taxes. Medicare, in addition to being the largest source of the country’s projected budget deficits, is a transfer program from young to old.

Meanwhile, education spending — the area that the young say should be cut the least, polls show — is taking deep cuts. The young also want the government to take action to slow global warming; Congress shows no signs of doing so. Even on same-sex marriage, where public opinion is moving toward youthful opinion, all 31 states that have held referendums on the matter have voted against same-sex marriage.

Over the long term, obviously, the young have a distinct advantage: they’re not going away. So one of the central questions for the future of American politics is whether today’s 20- and 30-year-olds will hold on to many of the opinions they have today, a pattern that would be less surprising than glib clichés about aging and conservatism suggest. Until recently, as the presidential results from the 1970s through the 1990s make clear, Americans did not grow much more conservative as they aged.

And while today’s young are not down-the-line liberal — they favor private accounts for Social Security and have reservations about government actions to protect online privacy — they certainly lean left.

No one knows exactly why, but there are some suspects. Having grown up surrounded by diversity, they are socially liberal, almost unconsciously so. Many of them also came of age in the (ultimately unpopular) George W. Bush presidency, or the (ultimately popular) Bill Clinton presidency, and pollsters at the Pew Research Center argue that the president during a generation’s formative years casts a long shadow, for better or worse. Hammered by the economic downturn, young voters say they want government to play a significant role in the economy.

These attitudes create a challenge for the Republican Party that is arguably as big as its better known struggles for the votes of Latinos. “We’ve got a generation of young people who are more socially liberal and more open to activist government,” says Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew center, which has done some of the most extensive generational polling. “They are quite distinct.”

Shortly after Mr. Bush won re-election in 2004, just when the age gap was emerging, his chief campaign strategist, Matthew Dowd, wrote a memo to other top Bush aides urging them not to assume that a new Republican majority was emerging. The exit polls, he wrote to Karl Rove and others, showed that younger voters had voted strongly Democratic, and those voters would be in the electorate for a long time to come.

“They don’t think the Republican Party thinks like them,” much as older voters feel alienated by what they see as today’s immigrant-embracing, gay-friendly, activist-government Democratic Party, Mr. Dowd said last week. “I don’t expect these younger voters to wake up all of a sudden when they’re 38 years old and say, ‘I was for gay marriage before, but now I’m against it.’ ”

Still, it would be mistake to assume that today’s young are going to be Democrats for life. Many children of the 1960s, after all, grew up to be Ronald Reagan voters. The political landscape shifts over time. Frustrated by a weak economy and a government that disproportionately benefits the old, younger adults could become ever more reluctant to send tax dollars to Washington. The Republican Party could grow more libertarian and thus more in line with the social views of the young.

What seems clear is that the marketing gurus are finally right: today’s young really are different. They view a boisterously diverse United States as a fact of life, and they view life as clearly better than it used to be. But they are also products of the longest economic slump in 70 years, and they would like a little help. They wish the country would devote more attention to its future, especially on education and the climate. They, of course, will have to live with that future.

David Leonhardt is the Washington bureau chief of The New York Times.
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[politics] [by lilmookieesquire@9:50amGMT] [+4 Interesting]

Comments

lilmookieesquire said @ 10:04am GMT on 23rd Jun
Also, GTA zombies:
kichijoii said @ 7:10pm GMT on 23rd Jun
GTA just doesn't have the mechanics to run a good zombie scenario.
blibblob said @ 10:42am GMT on 23rd Jun
And then they will all die. Although, right now, fuck science. Thanks to science they'll still keep on ticking due to our advancements for quite some time. As a bunch of lunatics who don't believe half of it.
snowfox said @ 7:57pm GMT on 23rd Jun
I just moved to be closer to my grandparents so they won't end up in an old folks' home. I see medical advancements as a serious problem because they are either too advanced or not advanced enough. Sure, people like my grandparents are living much longer, but they have low mobility, adopt moonbat ideas due to social isolation, weather numerous surgeries and treatments, etc Most of the low mobility comes from lifelong obesity, which is likely to be the situation for an increasing percentage of the elderly as our generation ages.

We're giving people ten extra years in which many of them can't do much. My grandparents are in their 80s now and stopped working in their mid-50s. Society really can't support that.
sanepride said @ 8:30pm GMT on 23rd Jun
Of course people with lifelong obesity will generally not live so long.
Garibaldi said @ 10:59am GMT on 23rd Jun
I keep on waiting for old age to dispatch all the Daily Mail readers, then my hopes dwindle when I see a younger person buying it.
kichijoii said @ 7:12pm GMT on 23rd Jun
Think of humanity like a human body: the dead tissue is replaced constantly with new flesh that is just as scarred or dilapidated.
mechanical contrivance said @ 1:58am GMT on 24th Jun
Humans aren't immortal, so I guess that means humans will go extinct soon. Oh well.
ComposerNate said @ 11:08am GMT on 23rd Jun [Score:2]
In a survey released by analyst Steve Sternberg, Fox News has the oldest audience among fully distributed cable networks. The network’s average viewer last season was 65 years old, according to Nielsen.
http://www.pensitoreview.com/2009/05/05/average-age-of-fox-news-viewer-is-65/
cb361 said @ 11:28am GMT on 23rd Jun [Score:2 Interesting]
Alan Turing: Inquest's suicide verdict 'not supportable'

tl;dr: If the same inquest was carried out today, the evidence would be found insufficient to rule on suicide.
sqmagellan said @ 12:12pm GMT on 23rd Jun
I'm not surprised to hear about these numbers, nor am I surprised that Fox News would attempt to garner a viewership well past their prime. After all, retirees (people collecting SS and Medicare) are the largest active voting bloc in the country.

Remember Medicare Part-D? Aimed at pleasing elderly voters. Overtly anti-gay politics? Aimed at pleasing elderly, religious (IE: conservative) voters. Subversive racist overtones? Aimed at pleasing a generation where racism was institutional and, typically, not forgotten: the elderly.

I'm more concerned about this crazy FOURTEEN year old conservative radio commentator. It's one thing to be old and set in hateful ways, it's another for someone just starting high school to spew hate-mongering at a national level.
sanepride said @ 5:34pm GMT on 23rd Jun
Well it's certainly not surprising for young teenagers to behave like thoughtless idiots (as seen in the famous bus monitor incident). It's just too bad some alleged grown-up thought to give one a national forum.
incpenners said @ 1:29pm GMT on 23rd Jun
This year, polls suggest that Mitt Romney will win a landslide among the over-65 crowd and that President Obama will do likewise among those under 40.

LOL.
mrklipp said @ 4:33pm GMT on 23rd Jun
We'll see if you are still laughing come November.
sanepride said @ 5:43pm GMT on 23rd Jun
We'll see. Older folks tend to be much more consistent and reliable voters than younger ones. One of the keys to Obama's overwhelming victory in 2008 was that younger voters were particularly energized. It isn't clear that will continue to be the case this November. Of course, the GOP base isn't exactly excited about Romney, but they are pretty passionate in their hatred for that Kenyan Muslim socialist illegitimately occupying the white house.
Ebichuman said @ 6:59pm GMT on 23rd Jun [Score:1 Insightful]
I agree. I think if everyone voted, we'd probably be a pretty left-center nation, but the skewed age representation at the polls is right-centric, and pretty much makes me expect Generic Republican Option (Romney) to end up winning this one. The one thing Republicans are very good at doing, and that elderly people are very susceptible too, is provoking a sense of persecution and fear, and the consequent sense of need to vote.

On the other hand, younger people have a sense of activism, but they also are frankly very fickle in their causes, fickle in their persistence, and easily distracted by all of the other benefits of being young (parties, sex, etc).

(I understand that both of these characterizations of young and old are partial stereotypes, but I think the factors that I give are fairly shared by enough of those in the age groups to actually have the aggregate influences I suggest they do. I may be wrong and just am offensive and ignorant.)

And likewise, I can understand democratic apathy. I am not very jazzed about Obama. I will vote for him, because I just have not seen a single good idea come from Republicans in a long time, just obfuscation and blind resistance to anything government. But I'm pretty jaded over Obama wasting huge opportunities during his first term.

Which is to say, I never bought into the hype and hope, very honestly -- he's just one man -- but I still understood that the hype itself created a wave for Obama to ride especially when democrats controlled Congress with a supermajority. But he just stood on the shore and watched those chances, until it disappeared with the changing tide.

And I could only stand there watching him watch the wave disappear, powerless to say anything. And now you are standing on the shore watching me standing on the shore watching Obama who watched the wave disappear. Oh, the poetic tragedy!
sanepride said @ 7:29pm GMT on 23rd Jun [Score:1 Insightful]
A fair summation, though you cannot discount the extraordinary wall of intransigence Obama has faced from the Republicans. Amazing really how they can manage to steadfastly oppose ideas that even they originated (like the individual healthcare mandate). No president in my memory (going back to Nixon) has had to deal with such total, unbridled, reflexive opposition.
Yes, he did let opportunities slip by, but the much-touted supermajority was pretty meaningless with a party as ideologically diverse as the Dems. They do not do mindless lockstep as readily as the GOP.
erich wiess said @ 1:34pm GMT on 23rd Jun


"Not to be a socialist at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head."

Georges Clemenceau

(cue "want of head" jokes)
GordonGuano said @ 2:12pm GMT on 23rd Jun [Score:-1]
Y'know, I've never been mugged, but I have had a car stolen. And I still consider myself to be (more or less) liberal.
theolypse said @ 6:59pm GMT on 23rd Jun
I think that, at this point, not to be a socialist at thirty is proof of want of want. Or of head.
Supreme_Coconut said @ 11:18pm GMT on 23rd Jun
I think that to be thirty is to want head.
mechanical contrivance said @ 2:03am GMT on 24th Jun
I think that to head is proof of want thirty.
arrowhen said @ 9:47am GMT on 24th Jun
Head I is of that think thirty proof want.
arrowhen said @ 9:48am GMT on 24th Jun
Which still makes more sense than my one attempt, many years ago, to write poetry on acid.
cache22 said @ 6:05pm GMT on 24th Jun [Score:1 Insightful]
My many acid still want proof. To write on head I sense thirty attempt, one more than makes think. Which that is poetry of years ago.
mechanical contrivance said @ 2:34am GMT on 25th Jun
Big thinks. Big thinks.
pleaides said @ 2:24pm GMT on 23rd Jun [Score:1 Funny]
His name was Guisot you pestilential twat.
erich wiess said @ 2:43pm GMT on 23rd Jun

Wrong.

The quote is Clemenceau.

From Wiki:

The phrase originated with Francois Guisot (1787-1874): "Not to be a republican at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head." It was revived by French Premier Georges Clemenceau (1841-1929): "Not to be a socialist at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head."

(http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/List_of_misquotations)

Guisot’s reference to "Republican" would have invited confusion in this thread. Clemenceau’s quote was more appropriate.

cb361 said @ 4:39pm GMT on 23rd Jun
'Pestilential twat' was right on the money, though.
granitewitch said @ 4:22pm GMT on 23rd Jun
My sister used to have a wall hanging that said "I shall not with age grow conservative." Now that she's pushing 60, I wonder if she still has it. Wouldn't surprise me if she does, as she's almost dogmatically liberal.

I can't say that my views have become more conservative as I approach 50. I've always been more of a centrist, taking views embraced by either liberals or conservatives on a case-by-case basis. I like to think of myself as more of a rationalist.

My father has always called himself a conservative, and has always voted Republican- until the last election, when he voted for Obama. This time around he intends to do the same. He's 83.
snowfox said @ 8:03pm GMT on 23rd Jun
My grandfather votes conservative mainly on gun issues, and I have finally convinced him that the democrats are not ever going to take away his guns (despite the shit the NRA keeps spewing) because it is just not a feasible thing to attempt. We have no idea how many guns there are, or where they are, so we'd have to send armed police or soldiers into every home to search (and how many would be willing to follow those orders?). And we still wouldn't get all of the guns. And more would come in across the borders.

I might just talk sense into him before the election. I suspect my grandmother will vote for Obama.
sanepride said @ 9:32pm GMT on 23rd Jun
Apparently a lot of folks on the right seriously believe that the so-called Fast & Furious operation was a really secret plot by the Obama administration to foment more violence among Mexican drug cartels, eventually letting it spill over the border, with the ultimate goal of providing an excuse for a sweeping crackdown on guns here in the US. I thought incpenners made this shit up in the previous F&F thread (silly me) but this seems to be a pervasive conspiracy theory.
cb361 said @ 11:13pm GMT on 23rd Jun
Conspiracy theories are another area in which satire is indistinguishable from the real thing.
sanepride said @ 2:06am GMT on 24th Jun
True...that is until you LOL at the convoluted absurdity of it and are then met with the stony glare of the true believer.
cache22 said @ 6:08pm GMT on 24th Jun
Yeah, but I sometimes do that to people just to fuck with them.
sanepride said @ 4:23pm GMT on 23rd Jun
I think the so-called generation gap is an increasingly fuzzy line, especially as the older baby boomers increasingly spill into that Social Security eligibility category. Thing is, as personal wealth continues to evaporate for most people, and they become increasingly dependent on social safety nets just to survive, they will have little practical incentive to vote for people or parties that are pledging to cut those same social safety nets.
Another thing is older people tend to vote in much greater numbers than younger people.
RedRiverRat said @ 7:29pm GMT on 23rd Jun
Say what you will.. the 60+ folks have nothing better to do. Its the Republican Zombie Apocalypse brought to you by Depends.

Rabid oldsters will win over the young just because they keep trudging to the voting boots. The young, myself included (because I still have mental age 19 or so) see a line and thing... fuck that! or completely space it and then bitter for a few years
theolypse said @ 7:58pm GMT on 23rd Jun [Score:1 Insightful]
Or, you know, can't get the day off from either of the part-time jobs they work to make ends meet.
cache22 said @ 6:09pm GMT on 24th Jun
I don't know why everyone's not on absentee ballots, voting booths are for the homeless.
aj904 said @ 5:06am GMT on 24th Jun

Shit, I will be 60 next year, am I gonna turn Rabid Republican overnight?

I hope not, it will cramp my rock & roll lifestyle.

It's the exceptions that screw up the polls all the time.
Navier-Strokes said @ 8:06pm GMT on 24th Jun
Wait, is this article trying to suggest that, on average, older populous are more conservative and younger populous are, again on average, more liberal? That's headline news.
spite48 said @ 7:19pm GMT on 25th Jun
I think a lot of young people fail to vote because they feel powerless individually to affect the outcome.

But, if every politically minded young person tried to persuade their parents, grandparents, and aunts and uncles to vote differently, and if they voted themselves, that might be enough to avert disaster.

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